Overview

• Trafigura’s Saad Rahim said India’s consumption gains this year should outpace China’s once Chinese strategic stockpiling is excluded.
• India’s growth is being propelled by urbanization, rising incomes, transportation needs, industrial activity and infrastructure spending.
• Gunvor’s Frederic Lasserre said China has been adding crude to strategic and commercial reserves, which has supported prices despite softer underlying demand.
• Lasserre indicated China’s stockpiling has persisted through refinery maintenance and could extend well into 2026, subject to capacity and policy choices.
• OPEC+ has accelerated the return of idled barrels, and Rahim cautioned that forecast demand growth of just under 1 million bpd next year risks leaving a surplus.