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TotalEnergies Signals Q3 Lift From Production Gains, Refining Margin Rebound

Management highlights a sharp recovery in European refining margins as the key support for cash flow guidance.

Overview

  • TotalEnergies guides third‑quarter oil and gas production to about 2.5 million boe/d, up roughly 4% year over year and above its >3% growth target.
  • The European refining margin marker surged to $63 per ton from $15.4 a year earlier despite planned turnarounds at Antwerp and Port Arthur.
  • Downstream results and cash flow are projected to rise by $400–$600 million year over year, with total business‑segment results and cash flow guided up 0–5% despite lower Brent averaging $69.1 versus $80.3 in Q3 2024.
  • Integrated LNG cash flow is expected to be in line with Q2 near $9 per MBtu, with the Ichthys LNG turnaround factored into results.
  • Net investments are estimated at about $3 billion supported by roughly $500 million in net divestments, a $1–$2 billion positive working‑capital contribution, and a 0.5–1 percentage point gearing improvement, while shares traded higher premarket and full results are due October 30.