Overview
- Multiple polls released Oct. 23–24 show a narrow, volatile contest with some surveys giving incumbent Olivia Chow a small edge and others showing Brad Bradford competitive or ahead.
- Both campaigns have shifted to last‑minute turnout drives and direct attacks, with Chow warning Bradford’s water‑utility plan could invite privatization and Bradford promising water‑bill cuts and tax relief.
- Polling gaps reflect different methods and samples: hybrid phone/online and pure online polls report varying leads and subgroup results, so margins between the candidates are within the margin of error.
- Support splits by neighbourhood and demographics, with Chow stronger among younger and lower‑income voters and in parts of Scarborough and Toronto‑East York, and Bradford leading in North York, Etobicoke and among higher‑income voters.
- With advance voting and mail ballots already cast, the result will hinge on who can convert late deciders and bring supporters to the polls when voting opens at 10 a.m. and closes at 8 p.m. on Oct. 26.