Overview

• SPC issued Mesoscale Discussion 2072 with an 80% probability of watch issuance for portions of north-central South Dakota and central North Dakota as severe potential increases through the afternoon.
• Convection near the ND–SD border is intensifying with daytime heating, and a corridor along the warm front may favor tornadoes, though forecasters note uncertainty over whether storms remain discrete or evolve into clusters with a growing wind threat.
• In the Southwest, SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2071 notes scattered storms in western New Mexico and southeastern Arizona could organize into supercells with large hail and severe gusts, with a 40% chance a watch may be needed.
• Mesoscale signals over western New Mexico and southeastern Arizona include deep-layer shear, long and straight hodographs, and a TBSS on KABX radar, supporting hail potential up to roughly 1.5–2.5 inches.
• Farther west, SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2070 highlights increasing storms over eastern Utah and western Colorado with small hail and gusty outflows expected and a watch unlikely, while WPC MPD 1084 cites isolated flash-flooding risk from training storms in West Texas into southeastern New Mexico.