Overview

• Kemi Badenoch reaffirmed a Conservative pledge to abolish stamp duty on primary residences while keeping the levy on second homes.
• The Institute for Fiscal Studies puts the direct cost near £4.5bn, while the Conservatives cite a £9bn bill they say would be covered by £47bn of identified savings.
• Economists caution that scrapping the tax could cause a one-off rise in house prices that absorbs buyer savings, drawing on OBR and HMRC evidence and the 2021 holiday experience.
• Analysts highlight alternatives that raise revenue without discouraging moves, including updated council tax, an annual land value tax, and capturing uplift from planning permissions.
• Policy design debates focus on feasibility, with a phased land value tax on new purchases seen as more workable and capital gains tax on main homes dismissed as politically untenable.