Overview
- Cotality data show the upper‑quartile family‑home market in Sydney and Melbourne has led recent declines, with top‑end values falling most sharply over the three months to May.
- Perth has recorded the strongest gains nationally, with annual growth around 25.8% and record median prices that pushed the income needed to buy a typical Perth house to about $123,787.
- Three RBA rate rises earlier in 2026 have materially raised mortgage servicing costs, which has erased much of the benefit of price dips for many buyers and increased the income needed to qualify for loans.
- Federal budget measures, including a 5% deposit scheme plus proposed limits on negative gearing and capital gains concessions, have reduced investor demand in some segments while supporting first‑home buyers in the lower quartile.
- Economists warn the correction could spread beyond high‑end pockets if spring listings and transaction data continue to soften, with NAB and ANZ forecasting at least modest national price falls in 2026.