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Tom Lee Sees Year-End Rally for Stocks and Crypto After Derivatives Reset

He argues a September Fed pivot created conditions for a late‑year upswing.

Overview

  • Lee says the S&P 500 could tack on a typical ~4% into year‑end with upside potential to roughly 10%, which would place the index above 7,000 from around 6,800.
  • He expects bitcoin and ether to rebound into year‑end after a sharp deleveraging left futures and options open interest at multiyear lows with technicals turning positive.
  • He describes Oct. 10 as the biggest liquidation in five years linked to tariff headlines, noting bitcoin slipped only 3%–4%, which he cites as evidence of resilience as a store of value.
  • He contends crypto often flags equity direction, linking bitcoin to the S&P 500 and ether to small caps via the Russell 2000.
  • He points to rising Ethereum activity on L1 and L2 driven by stablecoins and to JPMorgan’s openness to crypto collateral as supportive, while warning tariffs, a U.S. government shutdown, and concentrated ETF/options expiries can still spark volatility.