Overview
- The government panel’s worst-case modeling puts deaths from a Tokyo inland magnitude-7.3 earthquake at up to 18,000, about two-thirds from fires.
- The probability of a magnitude-7 class quake beneath the metropolitan area over 30 years is assessed at roughly 70 percent.
- Projected direct economic losses total 82.6 trillion yen, with up to 402,000 buildings collapsing or burning and about 4.8 million evacuees two weeks after the event.
- For the first time, the estimates include shelter-related fatalities, placed between 16,000 and 41,000 depending on conditions.
- The update lowers prior 2013 figures, including about 5,000 fewer deaths and roughly 210,000 fewer destroyed buildings; a separate Sagami Trough magnitude-8 case now forecasts 23,000 deaths with significant tsunami risk across a wider area.