Overview
- An Emerson College survey of likely voters (November 22–24) shows Republican Matt Van Epps leading Democrat Aftyn Behn 48% to 46%, within the margin of error.
- President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson will hold a Monday tele‑rally for Van Epps, with Johnson slated for multiple events in the district earlier that day.
- MAGA Inc. has spent more than $1.5 million backing Van Epps, with Club for Growth Action and Conservatives for American Excellence adding six‑figure buys, while House Majority PAC and Your Community PAC have combined for roughly $1 million supporting Behn.
- Behn reported raising over $1 million from October 1 to November 12, and Democrats have deployed national figures such as Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez to boost turnout and messaging.
- Turnout remains the wild card following a Thanksgiving‑week early voting window, with a GOP memo claiming Republicans led early and absentee ballots 46% to 40% as handicappers keep the race leaning Republican in a narrowly divided House.