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Tilray Extends Rally on Speculation of U.S. Cannabis Rescheduling

Analysts describe a sentiment-driven move vulnerable to policy delays, litigation risk, sector headwinds.

Overview

  • Tilray has climbed roughly 3.5 times from mid-2025 levels, hitting an intraday high of $15.71 and topping a $1.7 billion valuation, with recent trading near $13 and about 240% gains over six months.
  • The surge follows reports that President Trump has hinted at an executive order to shift cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III, a move investors view as potentially transformative.
  • Any rescheduling via executive action would still require federal rulemaking and public comment and would likely face court challenges that could slow or alter the outcome.
  • Recent company milestones, including one of its first profitable quarters in years and a December reverse stock split, have reinforced improving sentiment around the stock.
  • Market commentary flags overbought technicals and warns of a possible post-headline pullback, while persistent sector constraints such as banking limits and illicit-market competition remain unresolved.