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Tight Race and Shifting Demographics Define Biden-Trump Rematch

With the 2024 election six months away, polls show a neck-and-neck contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, influenced by key demographic shifts and voter enthusiasm.

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From left, Former President Donald Trump at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 3, 2024, in New York City. President Joe Biden departs the White House on May 03, 2024, in Washington, DC.
Rock Hill, South Carolina |
Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump thanks supporters after speaking at a “Get Out The Vote” rally at Winthrop University on Feb. 23, 2024 in Rock Hill, S.C. During his 90-minute speech Trump talked about the southern border and the economy, among other topics, including reiterating his support for the right of families to use IVF. He also brought up unfounded claims of election interference.
Mystik Dan, ridden by jockey Brian J. Hernandez Jr., crosses the finish line to win the 150th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 4.

Overview

  • Recent polls indicate a close race with Biden and Trump nearly tied, as enthusiasm varies significantly across party lines.
  • Trump's support declines among younger and Hispanic voters, while Biden gains traction with these groups but sees challenges with Black voters.
  • Independent candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could sway election outcomes, drawing potential votes from major party candidates.
  • Significant campaign efforts focus on seven key swing states, expected to be crucial in determining the election's result.
  • Voter uncertainty remains high with many open to changing their allegiance before November, highlighting the volatile political landscape.