Overview

• The latest surveys put Rafał Trzaskowski at 50.6 percent and Karol Nawrocki at 49.4 percent, keeping the June 1 outcome within the margin of error.
• The president’s veto authority could either accelerate or stall Donald Tusk’s plans on EU rule-of-law reforms, judicial independence and social policy.
• Allegations against Nawrocki—including shows of links to gangsters, arranging prostitutes and a disputed property deal—have not weakened his core support.
• Trzaskowski champions deeper EU integration, civil partnerships and eased abortion rules while Nawrocki promises tighter migration controls and prioritizes Polish citizens over refugees.
• Nawrocki’s endorsement by Donald Trump and recent White House visit signal a potential shift toward US populist alliances, contrasting with Trzaskowski’s emphasis on EU and NATO cohesion.