Overview

• Iran marks the third anniversary of Amini’s death with no nationwide protests, even as defiance of compulsory hijab remains more visible in major cities.
• Rights monitors report a sharp escalation in capital punishment, including at least 152 executions in August and the recent execution of 2022 protester Mehran Bahramian.
• Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned the country’s posture of “neither war nor peace” is dangerous, signaling concern over Iran’s precarious position.
• The anniversary follows a 12-day confrontation with Israel in June and strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, which activists say have coincided with more arrests and harsher crackdowns.
• Inflation near 40 percent, soaring food costs, and recurring power outages are worsening daily life, with analysts expecting any new unrest to center on economic grievances rather than a mass political movement.