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Thirty Years After Dayton, Bosnia’s Peace Holds as Reform Stagnates

Anniversary coverage points to a constitutional design that entrenches ethnic divisions, keeping the state cumbersome.

Overview

  • The 1995 U.S.-brokered accord ended the Bosnian War and left the state divided between the Federation and Republika Srpska with a separate Brčko district.
  • Complex, layered institutions and ethnic-based vetoes are widely blamed for chronic political deadlock that thwarts substantive constitutional and electoral change.
  • The European Court of Human Rights has, since 2009, repeatedly found elements of the Dayton framework incompatible with European rights standards.
  • International oversight yielded only partial gains, with Russia supporting nationalist actors who resist reforms sought by the EU and the Office of the High Representative.
  • No new push to overhaul the settlement has emerged, as past calls for a “Dayton 2” lacked backing and recent reporting cites unconfirmed speculation about President Trump’s intentions alongside a German foreign minister’s visit that offered no clear path forward.