Overview
- The Resolution Foundation’s New Year Outlook 2026 forecasts that this year could begin a period in which deaths consistently exceed births in the UK.
- ONS figures show fertility in England and Wales fell to a record 1.4 in 2024 after births only narrowly topped deaths that year, with the think tank estimating an even tighter margin for 2025.
- The report projects the gap could widen to about 100,000 more deaths than births annually by the mid-2040s.
- With natural increase fading, the study says future population growth would depend on net migration, which it notes has fallen to roughly 200,000 a year from recent peaks.
- Analysts warn an ageing population and a smaller workforce threaten the public finances, echoing OBR assessments of mounting pressures on pensions and healthcare.