Overview
- The assessment, based on OBR data, totals £8.2bn this parliament and excludes fresh reversals on pub business rates (~£300m) and farmers’ inheritance tax (~£130m).
- The report finds UK GDP per head has slipped to parity with Italy and sits about 15% behind a group of comparable economies.
- After adjusting official employment figures, the think tank estimates productivity rose 3.1% in the year to Q3 2025.
- Researchers urge action on planning and housebuilding, closer trade alignment with the EU, and targeted help to bring more young and older people into work.
- Rachel Reeves is drawing up support for roughly 5,000 pubs hit by doubled rates as industry groups press for wider relief across hospitality.