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The Smashing Machine’ Posts Career-Low Debut for Johnson, With $10–$15 Million Loss Now Forecast

Industry watchers point to a wide rollout and a marketing mismatch for the soft start.

Overview

  • A24’s biopic opened to about $5.9–6.0 million in the U.S. from roughly 3,345 theaters, the lowest debut of Dwayne Johnson’s film career.
  • Trade reporting estimates an eventual shortfall of approximately $10–$15 million against a reported ~$50 million production budget plus marketing.
  • Exit polling showed a young, male-skewing audience and a B- CinemaScore, with limited turnout from older arthouse moviegoers.
  • Analysts cite competition from Taylor Swift’s weekend concert film and unclear positioning of Benny Safdie’s more meditative drama as key headwinds.
  • Johnson said on Instagram the role “changed my life,” as Venice recognition and a low‑70s Rotten Tomatoes score sustain awards-season buzz for his performance.