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Thaw Grips Germany as Models Point to Possible Late‑January Cold

Meteorologists flag rising odds of a late‑January cold phase with confidence still low.

Overview

  • A west–southwest flow has spread mild maritime air across the country, bringing widespread thawing and highs locally reaching 10–15 °C in the south and west.
  • The DWD reports no imminent return of a nationwide snowy pattern, though overnight refreezing, black ice and dense fog remain possible in places.
  • Police and fire services warn against entering weakened ice on lakes and rivers, and Bavaria’s avalanche service rates the danger as considerable above about 1,800 meters.
  • Authorities expect meltwater to lift some river levels, with NLWKN stating there is currently no indication of a large‑scale flooding situation.
  • ECMWF and GFS ensembles show an emerging late‑month cold cluster, with some runs suggesting lows near −11 °C in parts of NRW and even lower locally, but forecasters stress the outlook is uncertain.