Overview
- AFBF’s 2025 survey pegs a classic meal for 10 at $55.18, down 5% from last year and the lowest since 2021, with a 16‑pound turkey averaging $21.50, 16.3% cheaper than in 2024.
- Supply remains constrained as USDA expects about five million fewer turkeys this year and industry groups note a near 40‑year low flock size linked to ongoing avian influenza losses.
- Upstream pressures persist, with Purdue reporting wholesale turkey prices up roughly 75% year over year and researchers pointing to higher feed and input costs influenced by recent tariffs.
- Retailers are offsetting those pressures with loss‑leader deals and bundles, including Walmart’s under‑$40 basket with a $0.97/lb Butterball, Target’s under‑$20 meal for four, Amazon’s $25 meal for five, Aldi’s $40 spread, and Lidl’s $0.25/lb turkey via app.
- Prices vary locally as Wisconsin’s Farm Bureau reports a 6.7% rise to $61.84 while Arizona’s average slips to $53.17, and experts advise choosing frozen birds, private labels, store apps, and smaller cuts or bundles to save.