Overview
- The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 40th annual survey pegs a classic dinner for 10 at $55.18, down 5% from 2024 and below the 2022 peak of $64.05, based on early‑November price checks by volunteers in all 50 states and Puerto Rico without special promotions.
- A 16‑pound frozen turkey averages $21.50, down 16.3% year over year, as grocers use whole birds as loss leaders, even though industry researchers report wholesale prices surged roughly 75% over last year.
- Produce-heavy sides climbed sharply, including sweet potatoes up about 37%, a carrot‑and‑celery tray up about 61%, and frozen peas up about 17%, with farm groups citing hurricane damage in North Carolina and ongoing labor shortages; rolls, stuffing, and cranberries were cheaper.
- Costs vary widely by location, with AFBF’s regional averages highest in the West at $61.75 and lowest in the South at $50.01, and one state snapshot showing California near $72.61 for the same menu.
- Major chains are pitching low-cost holiday bundles—Walmart near $40 for 10, Lidl around $36, and other kits at smaller scales—but item mixes differ from last year, comparisons can be misleading, and the AFBF survey excludes combined-deal discounts and was completed before recent tariff adjustments.