Overview
- The American Farm Bureau Federation pegs the 2025 “classic dinner for 10” at $55.18, down 5% from 2024 and the third straight annual decline from the 2022 peak.
- AFBF reports a 16% retail drop for a 16‑pound turkey to about $21.50, even as avian influenza keeps wholesale costs elevated and flocks still rebuild.
- Not all items are cheaper: a typical veggie tray is up about 61% and sweet potatoes about 37%, with weather damage and labor issues cited for fresh‑produce spikes.
- Major chains are leaning on bundles and private labels, including Walmart’s basket for under $40 for 10, Target’s under‑$20 kit for four, Aldi’s roughly $40 spread for 10, Lidl’s under‑$36 plan, and Amazon’s $25 meal for five.
- Mixed signals persist, with BLS “food at home” prices up roughly 2.7% year over year and alternative tallies such as Wells Fargo’s estimating about $80 using store brands or $95 with name brands; AFBF also notes regional gaps, from about $50 in the South to nearly $62 in the West.