Overview
- Colorado owns the league’s benchmark start with an .841 points percentage, one regulation loss, elite scoring and defending, and MVP‑ and Norris‑caliber leaders in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.
- Since the league adopted the wild‑card format, 77% of clubs in playoff position on Thanksgiving have gone on to qualify, so outlets are leaning on points percentage to frame provisional brackets.
- If the postseason started today by points percentage, surprises include Anaheim atop the Pacific and Seattle holding a spot on the strength of top‑tier team save percentage, with tight wild‑card races in the East.
- Goaltending is a decisive drag for several teams as Edmonton ranks near the bottom in save percentage and goals saved above expected, while St. Louis posts a .869 team save rate with both goalies deep in negative GSAx.
- Injuries are reshaping contenders with New Jersey missing Jack Hughes, Florida navigating long absences for Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov, and Winnipeg without Connor Hellebuyck for about a month, as models diverge sharply on Buffalo’s outlook.