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Thanksgiving Checkpoint: Avalanche Set the Pace as Playoff Picture Takes Shape

History says most teams in position now will stay there.

Overview

  • Colorado owns the league’s benchmark start with an .841 points percentage, one regulation loss, elite scoring and defending, and MVP‑ and Norris‑caliber leaders in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.
  • Since the league adopted the wild‑card format, 77% of clubs in playoff position on Thanksgiving have gone on to qualify, so outlets are leaning on points percentage to frame provisional brackets.
  • If the postseason started today by points percentage, surprises include Anaheim atop the Pacific and Seattle holding a spot on the strength of top‑tier team save percentage, with tight wild‑card races in the East.
  • Goaltending is a decisive drag for several teams as Edmonton ranks near the bottom in save percentage and goals saved above expected, while St. Louis posts a .869 team save rate with both goalies deep in negative GSAx.
  • Injuries are reshaping contenders with New Jersey missing Jack Hughes, Florida navigating long absences for Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov, and Winnipeg without Connor Hellebuyck for about a month, as models diverge sharply on Buffalo’s outlook.