Overview
- Piti Disyatat said GDP likely turned positive quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025 and the Bank of Thailand still expects 2.2% growth for 2025, which would avert a technical recession after a 0.6% Q3 contraction.
- The policy rate stands at 1.25% after five cuts totaling 125 basis points since October 2024, and officials say remaining space is limited even as they vow to deploy the tools left for potential shocks.
- Headline inflation is expected to move back into positive territory by March or April 2026, while December CPI fell 0.28% year-on-year and 2025 headline CPI declined 0.14% overall.
- The central bank intervened heavily to curb excessive baht volatility last year without targeting a specific level, and the stronger currency has tightened liquidity for smaller exporters.
- The finance ministry is weighing a tax on online gold trades and caps for large players as BOT estimates big-trader gold flows near half of 2025 GDP, with traders objecting and markets still pricing higher gold in 2026.