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Thai Reformist People’s Party Extends Lead in New Polls Ahead of Feb. 8 Vote

Legal limits plus fraught coalition math leave its path to governing uncertain.

Overview

  • The Suan Dusit survey for Jan. 6–9 shows the People’s Party at 34.2%, with leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut the top prime minister choice at 32%, ahead of Bhumjaithai on 16.2% and Pheu Thai on 16.0%.
  • NIDA’s Jan. 5–8 poll puts the People’s Party near 30.5% versus Bhumjaithai at 22.3%, with Natthaphong at 24.7% for premier and Anutin Charnvirakul at 20.8%, while undecided voters fell to 14.12% from 40.6% in December.
  • Prime Minister Anutin dissolved Parliament on Dec. 12 to preempt a no-confidence vote, triggering the snap election during a period of political turbulence and a recent border flare-up with Cambodia.
  • The People’s Party unveiled a 12-point platform on Jan. 11 focused on anti-corruption, regulatory and justice reforms, infrastructure, and a push into advanced manufacturing such as semiconductor components.
  • The party is the successor to Move Forward, which won the 2023 vote but was blocked from power and dissolved in 2024 over its bid to amend the royal defamation law, constraining the new party’s space to maneuver.