Overview
- Early voting starts Monday and both campaigns are mobilizing across the state with Paxton on an 18-day 'Come and Take It' bus tour and Talarico holding town halls and a CNN event to drive turnout.
- Poll averages show James Talarico with a slim lead often inside the margin of error, leaving the contest essentially tied and making turnout the decisive factor.
- A viral claim that Talarico was treated at an Ohio mental health facility was publicly refuted by the Lindner Center of Hope and by Talarico’s campaign, which said he was recovering from the flu.
- Outside groups and super PACs have bought historic ad time in the race, with total spending reported above $500 million and Republicans accounting for the bulk of that outlay.
- Paxton’s long-running legal controversies and incomplete party consolidation have opened space for Talarico, and President Trump has publicly blamed party figures such as John Cornyn and Karl Rove if Paxton loses, underscoring national interest in the outcome.