Texas Opens No. 1 With Arch Manning as Starter, but Forecasts Diverge on Ceiling

Projections range from a first SEC crown to a 9–3 finish.

Overview

Texas enters the season atop the AP poll with Arch Manning under center despite the NFL departures of Matthew Golden, Isaiah Bond and Jaydon Blue and his own tally of just two career starts.
The Athletic’s model slots Texas at No. 9 with a projected 9–3 record and a 64% chance to make the College Football Playoff, placing Georgia and Alabama ahead.
ClutchPoints predicts Texas will win its first SEC championship and earn a College Football Playoff first-round bye.
That outlet also projects the Longhorns will not advance to the CFP semifinal or the national championship and views Manning as a top-15 passer rather than a 2025 Heisman winner.
Texas opens at Ohio State on Aug. 30 in a rematch of last season’s Cotton Bowl loss, and ClutchPoints further forecasts a Red River defeat to Oklahoma after the Sooners’ roster and staff additions.