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Tether’s Reserve Mix Draws Fresh Fire as Hayes Warns of Equity Wipeout, While Defenders Cite Big Cushion

Supporters point to corporate assets outside reserve attestations as a sizable buffer.

Overview

  • BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes cautioned that a roughly 30% drop in Tether’s Bitcoin and gold holdings could erase equity and leave USDT theoretically insolvent.
  • Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino cited Q3 figures showing about $215 billion in total assets against $184.5 billion in stablecoin liabilities, plus roughly $7 billion in excess equity and about $23 billion in retained earnings.
  • Tether’s latest attestation reports around $22.8 billion in Bitcoin and gold, or about 12.6% of reserves, which critics say heightens mark‑to‑market risk.
  • Former Citi research lead Joseph Ayoub countered that Tether has significant corporate holdings beyond reported reserves, estimating total equity in the $50–$100 billion range with large Treasury-driven income.
  • S&P Global on November 26 cut USDT’s peg-stability score to 5, and analyst Paul Barron estimated each 25 bp Fed cut could trim Tether’s annual interest income by about $318 million on its Treasury exposure.