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Tesla’s Q3 Delivery Surge Sets Up a Q4 Demand Test After Rebates Expire

Analysts say the rush to buy before the September 30 tax-credit cutoff may not carry into the next quarter.

Overview

  • Tesla reported strong third-quarter deliveries as customers accelerated purchases ahead of the tax-rebate deadline.
  • Steve Westly projected about 465,000 Q3 deliveries and said the key question is how demand holds in Q4 without incentives.
  • CFRA’s Garrett Nelson said he sees no upside over the next 12 months, citing a potential post-credit sales drop and diminishing regulatory-credit profits.
  • Westly said Tesla needs lower-cost vehicles, new markets, and additional approvals for full self-driving as EV competition intensifies.
  • In recent context, Tesla’s California sales fell about 12% year over year in 2024, while investors also noted a limited robotaxi rollout in Austin, a global Model Y refresh, and plans to unveil new mass‑market models next quarter.