Overview
- Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026 versus roughly 370,000 expected, while producing about 408,000, leaving an unsold backlog near 50,000 cars that is the largest in its history.
- The growing stock of unsold vehicles ties up cash, and analysts now project more than $6 billion in negative free cash flow for 2026 after Tesla lifted this year’s capital spending plan to about $20 billion for AI and robotics.
- JPMorgan reiterated an Underweight rating with a $145 price target that implies about 60% downside, citing fiercer competition, delivery declines, execution risk, and weakening brand value.
- Shares are down about 23% this year and trade at a rich multiple, with one analysis placing Tesla’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio near 212 times, even as some investors still argue the premium reflects future software and AI gains.
- Operational offsets remain uneven, with Tesla reporting 1.1 million active Full Self-Driving subscriptions in Q4 (up 38% year over year) and energy revenue up 27% to $12.8 billion.