Overview
- Tesla published a handpicked analyst average of about 422,850 Q4 deliveries, implying roughly a 15% year-over-year decline and drawing “highly unusual” reactions from veteran watchers.
- Bloomberg’s separate compilation points to around 440,900 deliveries, an estimated 11% drop from a year earlier, with the official report expected Friday.
- Investors embraced Elon Musk’s autonomy and robotaxi narrative, helping the stock rebound in the second half even as retail demand lagged.
- A federal regulator opened multiple investigations after Austin robotaxis violated traffic laws on launch day, and Tesla’s Full Self-Driving still requires human supervision.
- Wall Street has cut 2026 delivery forecasts to roughly 1.8 million from more than 3 million two years ago, while U.S. demand cooled after tax credits lapsed and rivals such as BYD gained share in China and Europe.