Overview
- Tesla is expected to report about 440,900 fourth‑quarter deliveries, an approximately 11% year‑over‑year decline, according to Bloomberg‑compiled data.
- In a rare move, the company published its own average of analyst estimates pointing to a roughly 15% drop, signaling a more downbeat near‑term view.
- Wall Street now models around 1.8 million vehicle deliveries for 2026, down from projections above 3 million two years ago.
- Shares rallied in late 2025 on Elon Musk’s AI and robotaxi narrative even as showroom demand softened and rivals such as BYD gained ground.
- Tesla’s invite‑only robotaxi trials in Austin have attracted federal investigations, California is weighing a 30‑day sales‑license suspension over FSD claims, and the end of U.S. EV tax credits adds a new headwind.