Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Tesla Set to Report Q4 Results as Delivery Slump Tests Autonomy-Fueled Valuation

Investors focus on margins, 2026 delivery guidance, credible autonomy timelines given the stock’s elevated valuation.

Overview

  • Tesla reports after the bell Wednesday, with Wall Street expecting about $24.7–$24.9 billion in revenue and roughly $0.45 in non-GAAP EPS.
  • Vehicle deliveries fell to 418,227 in Q4 and 1.636 million for 2025, reinforcing that cars still drive results, with autos about 75% of Q3 revenue.
  • Energy storage was a bright spot, with a record 14.2 GWh deployed in Q4 and 46.7 GWh for the year, up roughly 49%.
  • Early robotaxi activity remains limited to Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area; a small subset of Austin rides ran without an in-car safety monitor, with a chase car and company caveats.
  • Options imply roughly a 5% stock move after results, as analysts weigh 2026 sales guidance, margin trajectory, and updates on potential FSD, Cybercab, and Optimus commercialization.