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Tesla Set for Largest Quarterly Delivery Drop as Analysts Forecast Over 11% Decline

Lingering high-interest rates coupled with production delays on the new Model Y have left Tesla vulnerable to intensified competition in key markets.

The logo of Tesla is seen on a Tesla car in Brussels, Belgium April 24, 2025. REUTERS/Yves Herman/File Photo
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Tesla logo and Elon Musk silhouette are seen in this illustration taken, December 19, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

Overview

  • Analysts polled by Visible Alpha forecast roughly 394,380 Q2 deliveries, a drop of more than 11% from the year-ago period.
  • Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association show Tesla’s sales have fallen for five straight months, plunging 27.9% in May as consumer backlash over Musk’s politics took hold.
  • Strong launches of feature-rich models by domestic automakers have pushed Tesla’s China EV market share down to 7.6% for the first five months of 2025.
  • A production halt to introduce a refreshed Model Y has prompted buyers to delay orders, while a planned budget version of the Model Y has been pushed back by several months.
  • Tesla’s limited rollout of 10 to 20 robotaxis in Texas is expected to have minimal impact on core vehicle revenue this year.