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Tesla Reports Storage Surge, Warns of 2026 Margin Squeeze as It Shifts Spend to AI and Robotaxis

The company cautions that energy profits will tighten next year despite record deployments.

Overview

  • Tesla said energy storage deployments reached 14.2 GWh in Q4 and 46.7 GWh for 2025, with Q4 energy revenue at $3.37 billion and segment gross margin at 29.8%.
  • CFO Vaibhav Taneja forecast margin compression in 2026 due to lower-cost rivals, policy uncertainty and tariffs, even as deployments are expected to rise with Megapack 3 and the 20 MWh Megablock.
  • Elon Musk confirmed Tesla will retire the Model S and Model X to repurpose factory space, with more than $20 billion of 2026 capex directed to Cybercab, Optimus, Semi, Megafactories, cell and refining capacity, and AI compute.
  • Tesla reported 1.1 million paying Full Self‑Driving subscribers and said roughly 500 robotaxis operate in Austin and the Bay Area, with plans to add seven more operating areas in 2026.
  • The company said initial 7 GWh LFP cell capacity in Nevada and a new Texas lithium refinery are in early ramp, moves aimed at strengthening domestic supply for its storage business.