Overview
- Tesla posted a company-compiled Q4 delivery consensus showing a median of 420,399 vehicles and a mean of 422,850.
- Bloomberg’s separate compilation stands higher at about 445,061, highlighting a gap between Tesla’s benchmark and broader Street expectations.
- If realized, the consensus implies roughly 1.64 million vehicle deliveries for 2025, more than an 8% decline year over year and a second consecutive annual drop.
- The release aggregates inputs from 20 analysts for vehicles and 16 for energy, with Q4 energy storage deployments estimated at 13.4 GWh.
- The public disclosure departs from Tesla’s past practice of sharing consensus privately and has been interpreted by outlets as expectation-setting, with some questioning model-level assumptions such as “other models.”