Overview
- Tesla posted a company-compiled analyst consensus showing Q4 deliveries averaging 422,850 vehicles, with a median of 420,399.
- The figure trails broader market tallies, with Bloomberg’s average closer to about 441,000–445,000, underscoring a gap between datasets.
- The consensus implies roughly 1.64 million deliveries for 2025, about an 8% year-over-year decline and a second consecutive annual drop.
- The release, sourced from 20 sell-side firms and accompanied by a disclaimer that Tesla does not endorse the estimates, is an unusually public move for the company.
- Tesla also shared estimates for 13.4 GWh of Q4 energy-storage deployments and multi‑year delivery projections that rebound from 2026, as observers cite lost U.S. tax credits, Model Y retooling, and rising competition as near-term headwinds.