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Tesla Publishes Downbeat Q4 Delivery Consensus, Puts Estimate Near 423,000

The rare disclosure signals expectation-setting after the U.S. tax credit pull‑forward left the quarter with a tougher comparison.

Overview

  • Tesa’s investor-relations post shows a company-compiled Q4 average of 422,850 deliveries (median 420,399) and about 13.4 GWh of energy storage deployments.
  • The figures imply roughly 1.64 million deliveries for full-year 2025, about an 8% decline year over year and a second straight annual drop.
  • The posted average sits below broader tallies, including Bloomberg’s ~445,000 and FactSet’s ~449,000 Q4 estimates.
  • Analysts cite the expired $7,500 U.S. EV credit, Model Y retooling, fiercer competition and reputational effects as key pressures on near-term volumes.
  • Tesla said it compiled inputs from 20 vehicle and 16 energy analysts; shares moved little after the post, and official Q4 production and deliveries are due in early January, with multi-year forecasts pointing to a rebound from 2026.