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Tesla Publishes Company-Compiled Q4 Consensus, Signaling Lower Delivery Outlook

The company publicly posted a lower, company-compiled benchmark to steer expectations ahead of its early-January delivery report.

Overview

  • Tesla’s Investor Relations page lists a company-compiled average of 422,850 Q4 vehicle deliveries and 13.4 GWh of energy-storage deployments, an unusual public release of estimates it traditionally shared privately.
  • The posted mean of 422,850 and median of 420,399 are below other market aggregates, including roughly 445,000 from Bloomberg and about 449,000 from FactSet.
  • The compilation draws from 20 sell-side analysts for vehicles and 16 for energy, and Tesla notes it does not endorse the analysts’ information or conclusions.
  • If realized, the figures imply about 1.64 million deliveries for full-year 2025, an estimated decline of roughly 8% and a second consecutive annual drop.
  • Reporting ties the weaker outlook to the expiration of U.S. $7,500 EV tax credits at the start of Q4, production retooling for the redesigned Model Y, and intensifying competition, with official results expected in early January.