Tesla Outlook Splits Wall Street as UBS Cuts Q4 View and Canaccord Lifts Target

Overview

• UBS trimmed its fourth‑quarter delivery estimate to 415,000 vehicles, projecting roughly a 16% year‑over‑year drop, and reaffirmed a Sell rating with a $247 price target.
• Canaccord Genuity raised its price target to $551 and kept a Buy rating, citing long‑duration opportunities in autonomy and robotics while acknowledging softer Q4 deliveries after a Q3 pull‑forward tied to U.S. tax‑credit timing.
• Tesla shares set fresh highs near $499 and are up about 16% over the past month, with the rally linked to autonomy developments and the recent legal outcome.
• A Delaware court reinstated Elon Musk’s 2018 compensation award, effectively restoring 303 million shares and issuing $1 in nominal damages.
• Analysts highlight policy shifts and incentive changes in key markets as drivers of uneven demand, with attention turning to 2026 plans for broader FSD deployment and robotaxi expansion as potential catalysts.