Overview
- Late on Friday, reports said US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative understanding to extend the three‑month ceasefire by 60 days and reopen talks on Iran’s nuclear programme, though final signoffs remain pending.
- Global spot gold recovered modestly to the mid‑$4,500s as risk flows returned, with Reuters and other market data showing intraday gains after the ceasefire reports.
- Stronger US inflation data, with PCE running at about 3.8% year‑on‑year for April, firmed expectations of Fed tightening and a stronger dollar, which kept upside for bullion capped and produced a weekly decline.
- Indian and Pakistani domestic markets moved independently from international spot, with MCX June futures near Rs 156,683 per 10g, India‑Dubai premia around 9.9%, and Pakistani associations reporting recent local price upticks.
- Analysts remain split on the next leg for gold, with some forecasting medium‑term upside toward Rs 200,000 per 10g while others expect continued range trading as the deal’s final text and policy moves play out.