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Tennessee’s 7th Tightens: New Poll Puts Van Epps Up Two Ahead of Dec. 2 Special

Early ballots tilt to Aftyn Behn, with turnout patterns likely to decide the outcome.

Democratic congressional candidate State Rep. Aftyn Behn, D-Nashville, attends a campaign event during the special election for the seventh district, Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025, Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)
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Voters arrive to vote at a polling station in San Francisco, California, on November 4, during California's special election on Proposition 50, a measure that would temporarily redraw congressional districts.
Democratic congressional candidate Aftyn Behn visits a home in Franklin, Tennessee as she canvases for votes in a special election for the state's seventh district, on November 13.

Overview

  • An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey conducted Nov. 22–24 finds Matt Van Epps at 48% and Aftyn Behn at 46%, with 5% undecided and a ±3.9-point credibility interval.
  • Cross-tabs show early voters breaking for Behn 56%–42% and planned Election Day voters favoring Van Epps 51%–39%, with younger voters leaning Democratic and older voters leaning Republican.
  • Through Monday, more than 63,000 early or mail ballots were cast, about 35% of the district’s 2022 turnout, signaling unusually strong pre-election participation.
  • National groups have poured in resources, including a $1 million pledge from House Majority PAC, while Inside Elections shifted the race to lean Republican and Cook kept it likely Republican as Trump and Kamala Harris weighed in.
  • Trump’s job approval in the district stands at 47% approve and 49% disapprove, and a Democratic flip would trim the GOP House majority to roughly 218 seats.