Overview
- Late June saw the official peso rise to its highest levels of 2026, with the wholesale rate near ARS 1,479 and retail around ARS 1,495 after a multi‑day acceleration in mid‑June.
- The central bank has remained a net buyer of dollars in 2026 but sharply slowed daily purchases, leaving cumulative net buys near USD 10.9 billion while gross reserves show valuation and flow volatility.
- Parallel and financial rates climbed above ARS 1,500 — MEP, CCL and the informal 'blue' rate all moved higher — and trading in futures and dollar‑linked bonds surged as investors sought protection.
- Market effects included falls in local stocks and sovereign bonds and a rise in sovereign risk premia into the low‑to‑mid 400s, while December futures repriced toward roughly ARS 1.64–1.65 per USD.
- Structural context: Argentina operates a banded float with a government ceiling near ARS 1,797, the second half of the year typically reduces agro dollar supply, and the Treasury faces large July FX needs that could further pressure reserves and sentiment.