Overview
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed below their 50-day moving averages for the first time since late April, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all finishing lower on Monday.
- AI and chip names led declines as investors questioned rich valuations and the payoff from massive AI spending, with Nvidia down nearly 2% ahead of Wednesday’s earnings.
- Traders now see roughly a 40%–45% chance of a December Fed rate cut, a sharp pullback from a month ago, after Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson urged moving slowly and Governor Christopher Waller signaled support for another cut.
- The long-delayed September nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for Thursday after the shutdown, a key input for rate expectations alongside retailer results from Home Depot, Target and Walmart.
- Risk-off moves widened beyond equities: the VIX jumped, bitcoin hovered just under $92,000 after a >25% slide from October’s peak, and 10-year Treasury yields edged down to about 4.13% as global markets softened.