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TD Cowen Lowers Strategy Target to $440 as Equity-Funded Bitcoin Buying Compresses Yield

The bank maintains a buy rating after the company lifted holdings to roughly 687,410 BTC using recent equity proceeds.

Overview

  • Strategy bought 13,627 BTC for about $1.25 billion during the week ending Jan. 11, taking its total to roughly 687,410 coins.
  • TD Cowen cut its one-year price target to $440 but kept a buy rating, projecting bitcoin yield of about 7.1% for fiscal 2026 versus 22.8% in 2025.
  • Analysts expect about 155,000 BTC of 2026 purchases to be financed mainly through common and preferred stock, pressuring per‑share bitcoin accrual.
  • MSCI chose not to exclude bitcoin-treasury companies from key indexes, easing concerns over potential passive outflows.
  • Director Carl Rickertsen disclosed a 5,000‑share open‑market buy of roughly $780,000 as MSTR rebounded 5–10% with bitcoin approaching $95,000–$100,000.