TD Cowen Cuts Strategy Price Target to $440 on Dilution From Equity-Funded Bitcoin Buys

MSCI’s decision to keep bitcoin‑treasury firms in its indexes removes a near‑term overhang for passive flows.

Overview

TD Cowen lowered its one-year target to $440 and maintained a buy rating, citing dilution that is compressing bitcoin-per-share yield.
In the week ended Jan. 11, Strategy raised about $1.25 billion via common stock and variable-rate “Stretch” preferreds and used the proceeds to buy roughly 13,600 bitcoin.
The company’s reported holdings rose to approximately 687,410 bitcoin following the latest purchases.
Analysts now project bitcoin yield of about 7.1% for fiscal 2026 versus 22.8% in 2025, with a rebound expected in 2027 based on higher modeled bitcoin prices.
Index risk eased as MSCI opted not to exclude bitcoin-treasury companies, and Strategy shares gained roughly 5.6% as bitcoin moved above $95,000.