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TD Cowen Cuts Strategy (MSTR) Price Target to $440 on Weaker Bitcoin Yield Outlook

Analysts say equity issuance used to fund recent purchases is diluting bitcoin-per-share growth.

Overview

  • Strategy raised about $1.25 billion through common stock and STRC preferred last week and used nearly all proceeds to buy roughly 13,600–13,627 BTC, bringing holdings to about 687,410 BTC.
  • TD Cowen now models bitcoin yield falling to around 7.1% in fiscal 2026 from 22.8% in 2025 and maintained a buy rating despite near-term pressure from dilution.
  • The latest capital raise included roughly 6.8 million new common shares and 1.2 million STRC preferred shares, which generated minimal bitcoin yield given issuance near parity with BTC prices.
  • Shares rebounded alongside bitcoin, with reports of an intraday jump of more than 10% above $189 and a separate 5.6% climb to $182.71 as BTC approached $95,000–$97,000.
  • MSCI declined to remove bitcoin-treasury companies from key indexes, easing fears of forced passive selling, and insider Carl Rickertsen signaled confidence with a 5,000-share, ~$780,000 open-market purchase.