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5h ago

TCU Sets CBS Reference Rate at 11.3%

A higher-than-expected reference raises expected tax burdens for 2027, leaving technical uncertainties that could change the final rate.

Alíquotas do Imposto Seletivo devem ser definidas nesta semana, segundo o ministro da Fazenda, Dario Durigan
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A CBS é o imposto que será cobrado sobre o consumo a partir do ano que vem
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Overview

  • The Tribunal de Contas da União fixed the CBS reference rate at 11.3468% (rounded to 11.3%) and approved a 44.16% reduction for federal public purchases in a decision delivered on Oct. 28.
  • The TCU said the figure is a technical reference that must be sent to the Senate for resolution and that unresolved methodological items remain that could change the number.
  • The Finance Ministry argues the average effective CBS rate paid by consumers will be below 8.5% in 2027 once exemptions, reduced brackets and the cashback mechanism are applied.
  • Analysts and firms warned the TCU rate exceeds earlier technical references and, combined with an 18.7% IBS estimate, could push the new dual-IVA toward about 30%, a level that would trigger legal limits and possible corrective measures.
  • Key open issues the TCU flagged that can alter the reference include how revenues from the Imposto Seletivo are split, the IPI residual and Zona Franca de Manaus rules, and the design of presumed-credit regimes, with the Senate having until Dec. 15 to act or let the TCU figure apply provisionally.