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TC Energy Extends Growth Outlook to 2028 as Canadian Natural Raises 2025 Output on Record Quarter

Leaders credit surging LNG demand, data-centre power needs, clearer permitting.

Overview

  • TC Energy projected comparable EBITDA growth of 5% to 7% annually through 2028 and forecast a 45 Bcf/d increase in North American gas demand by 2035 driven by LNG exports and power needs.
  • The pipeline operator said it has sanctioned over US$5 billion in projects in the past year and expects about $8.2 billion to enter service by year-end, with new builds largely backed by long-term take-or-pay or cost-of-service contracts.
  • For Q3, TC Energy reported revenue of $3.70 billion, up from $3.36 billion, with lower net income and comparable EPS of C$0.77, and it highlighted a more supportive policy backdrop including Canada’s Bill C-5 and faster U.S. permitting.
  • Canadian Natural posted record production of about 1.62 million boe/d, adjusted earnings of C$0.86 per share, revenue of $9.52 billion, and a roughly C$700 million non-cash charge tied to North Sea asset abandonment costs.
  • The producer raised its 2025 production guidance to 1.56–1.58 million boe/d following the Albian asset deal, kept its C$5.9 billion capital budget, declared a C$0.5875 dividend payable January 6, 2026, and sought detail on Ottawa’s climate policy and industrial carbon pricing.