Overview
- Hamburg now expects roughly €2.5 billion more in tax receipts through 2030 than forecast in May, with 2025 revenues seen at about €16.5 billion and rising toward the high €18 billions by decade’s end.
- Schleswig‑Holstein projects around €1.1 billion in additional revenues through 2029, yet its finance ministry says the gains primarily reduce borrowing for a state still carrying roughly €32 billion in debt.
- Hamburg’s finance senator rules out new recurring spending and warns many cost increases cannot be fully offset as legally mandated social services outpace revenue growth.
- Pending federal tax measures not included in the state forecasts could erode the uplift, with Hamburg estimating roughly €450 million less if proposals such as a higher commuter allowance and a reduced VAT for gastronomy take effect.
- Local finances see a modest boost, with Schleswig‑Holstein municipalities’ own revenues estimated at about €4.9 billion in 2025, while both states flag one of the most difficult budget rounds in years for 2027/2028.