Overview

• U.S. GDP grew at a 3.3% annualized pace in Q2 after a revision, with a 29.8% plunge in imports contributing nearly five percentage points and consumer spending rising 1.6%.
• Canada’s economy shrank in Q2 (down 0.4% quarter over quarter, or 1.6% annualized) as exports fell 7.5%, led by a 24.7% drop in auto shipments, while business investment weakened and imports edged down 1.3%.
• Following the Canadian data, market odds of a Bank of Canada rate cut on September 17 rose to 48%, with the policy rate currently at 2.75%.
• Banco de México raised its 2025 GDP forecast to 0.6% and 2026 to 1.1% on better-than-expected Q2 performance, warned that U.S. protectionism remains a downside risk, and still projects inflation convergence to 3% in Q3 2026.
• Mexico’s public revenues through July fell short of the program by 93,114 million pesos due to weaker oil receipts, even as tax collection rose 7.2% in real terms and public debt stood at 17.8 trillion pesos.